Kamala Harris Leading Donald Trump in Four Battleground States: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in five of seven battleground states, according to a new poll.
As 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party from 2000 to 2016, the winner is almost always decided by a handful of “swing states,” also known as “purple” or “battleground” states. This year’s election is likely to hinge on seven—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.
A survey of 18,875 swing state voters published on Monday by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph found that Harris led by in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump led in North Carolina and Arizona. The candidates were tied in Georgia. All seven poll results fell within the margin of error.
Harris led by 2 points in Michigan (48 percent to 46), and a point in Nevada (48 percent to 47), Pennsylvania (48 percent to 47), and Wisconsin (47 percent to 46). In Georgia the candidates are tied at 47 percent. Trump leads by one point in Arizona (48 percent to 47 percent) and 2 points in North Carolina (47 percent to 45 percent).
The poll also covered Florida, where Trump led by 4 points, and Minnesota, where Harris led by 8. The survey was conducted between September 27 and October 2.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the closest races in U.S. history. The latest polls often show Harris and Trump separated by points within the margin of error (which for most polls is at least three), both nationally and in several states.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s most recent average put the vice president 2.6 percentage points ahead of her Republican rival nationally—48.5 to 45.9 percent.
The most recent update to Nate Silver’s election poll averages on the Silver Bulletin blog also saw Harris slightly ahead at 49.2 percent, and Trump at 46.2 percent.
These aggregate polls measure the national popular vote. A presidential contender can win this yet still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes. Harris is the strong favorite to win the popular vote, according to betting markets, as well as polls.
Harris only needs to win the three so-called blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to give her the required 270 Electoral College votes to win the election, barring any shock results elsewhere. Harris would also need to win the Electoral College in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in November, the former president will have enough votes to be declared the overall winner, again barring any upsets elsewhere.
Trump could also win by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and flipping either Wisconsin or Michigan.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.